In 2024, the political landscape of South Africa is poised for significant shifts and transformations. Join me on a visualization journey through maps and charts as we unravel the potential scenarios and trends that will shape the future of the nation’s politics. Let’s delve into the intricate web of factors influencing South Africa’s political sphere and forecast what awaits on the horizon!
South Africa Heads to the Polls
On May 29, millions of South Africans will participate in national and provincial elections, choosing both a new National Assembly and state legislatures. These elections, the seventh since the end of apartheid in 1994, are crucial as they will determine the leadership and direction of the country for the next five years.
The National Assembly will be responsible for selecting the new president of South Africa. Among the primary contenders are the African National Congress (ANC), the Democratic Alliance (DA), the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), and the newly established uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party.
Polling Logistics and Accessibility
With 23,292 polling stations open from 7 AM to 9 PM, the election day has been declared a public holiday, ensuring greater voter turnout. According to the Electoral Commission (IEC) of South Africa, 27.79 million South Africans aged 18 and above have registered to vote, an increase from 26.74 million in 2019.
Special arrangements have been made for registered voters living abroad and those with special needs, allowing them to cast their ballots ahead of the official election day.
Proportional Voting System
South Africa employs a proportional voting system, a system where parties and candidates vie for 400 seats in the National Assembly. For the first time in history, independent candidates will also be contesting. Voters will receive three ballots: two for electing members of the National Assembly, and one for the provincial legislatures in each of South Africaβs nine provinces.
Current National Assembly Composition
As of now, the National Assembly consists of 14 political parties. The seats are allocated proportionally based on the election results from 2019:
- African National Congress (ANC): 230 seats (57.5%)
- Democratic Alliance (DA): 84 seats (21%)
- Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF): 44 seats (11%)
- Other Parties: 42 seats
Election Outcomes and Presidential Selection
In South Africa, citizens do not directly vote for the president. Instead, the 400 members of the National Assembly cast their votes, requiring a simple majority to elect the president. If the ANC maintains more than 50% of the seats, Cyril Ramaphosa is expected to secure a second term.
Coalition Government Possibilities
An emerging trend in polls suggests that the ANC‘s support is around 40%, raising the possibility of a coalition government. Should the ANC fail to achieve a majority, partnerships with other parties might become essential to form a functioning government.
Historical Performance of the ANC
The ANC has dominated every election since the end of apartheid, beginning with Nelson Mandela’s historic win in 1994. Their highest voter turnout was in 2004, capturing nearly 70% of the vote. Since then, their dominance has slightly waned, with the most recent 2019 elections showing a turnout of 66% and the ANC receiving 57.5% of the vote.
Key Contenders for 2024
The upcoming 2024 elections will see significant competition among four major parties:
- ANC β Cyril Ramaphosa: Current president expected to gain majorities in most provinces, except for KZN and the Western Cape.
- DA β John Steenhuisen: Campaigning to “rescue South Africa,” with a stronghold in the Western Cape.
- MK β Jacob Zuma: New party poised to gain traction, especially in KwaZulu-Natal.
- EFF β Julius Malema: Anti-establishment party polling in fourth place.
Announcement of Results
The IEC will begin releasing partial results shortly after the polls close. Given the introduction of a third ballot, it might take longer to finalize the count, with official results expected on June 2.
Source: www.aljazeera.com