Friday, February 14

With the Dutch exit polls unveiling unexpected outcomes in the latest European elections, the question arises: Is the far right truly losing ground? Let’s delve into the intriguing dynamics at play.

An Unexpected Lead for Progressives

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In a surprising turn of events, the Left and Green parties in the Netherlands have announced their optimism after exit polls from the European elections indicated that a progressive alliance is narrowly leading over its nationalist rivals. Dutch voters were among the first in the 27 EU member states to participate in this crucial electoral exercise to select 720 representatives for the world’s only directly elected transnational parliament.

Hard-Right Gains and Limitations

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While the polls suggest hard-right and far-right parties are on course for their best results ever, their representatives are likely to remain divided across multiple groups and non-aligned MEPs, which could dilute their overall power and influence.

Exit Poll Results: A Tense Race

The Dutch national broadcaster NOS reported that the Green-Left alliance is projected to win eight seats, just ahead of Geert Wilders’ far-right Freedom Party (PVV), which is estimated to secure seven seats. Given the margin of error of one seat, a potential tie remains a possibility.

Victory Claims from Both Camps

Both the Left-Green alliance and the PVV have claimed victory. Bas Eickhout, a veteran Green MEP and joint lead candidate for his group, said, “The narrative of the rise of the far right has been beaten. This is a message for the rest of Europe: go out and vote!”

On the other hand, Geert Wilders expressed pride in his party’s accomplishments over the past year, citing its first-place finish in national elections and its unprecedented success in the European vote. In the last European elections in 2019, the PVV had only managed to win one seat.

Continuing the Voting Process

The voting process continues as citizens in Ireland and the Czech Republic head to the polls. Latvia, Malta, Slovakia, and Italy are scheduled to vote on Saturday, with Italy’s voting extending into Sunday. The majority of EU citizens, including those in the key member states of France, Germany, Spain, and Poland, will cast their votes on Sunday. A reasonably definitive estimate of the results is expected early Monday morning.

Ursula von der Leyen’s Campaign

Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, who is running for a second term, has been campaigning in Austria for her centre-right European People’s Party. She advocates for “a strong Europe … that can defend itself” and has proposed increased European cooperation on defense and a new structure to combat foreign interference in EU politics.

What Lies Ahead

While von der Leyen is still the frontrunner, there remains a significant chance that she might fail to secure approval from the next European parliament. A senior EU diplomat estimated her chances of reappointment by EU leaders at 80%-85% and her probability of obtaining a majority in the parliament at 60%-65%. She will need at least 361 votes, a simple majority of the 720 MEPs set to take their seats in July.

The Role of the European Parliament

The new European Parliament will also be crucial in implementing the Green Deal, Europe’s comprehensive response to the climate crisis. Voter turnout will be closely monitored, considering it jumped to a 25-year high of 50.7% in the 2019 elections.

Increased Voter Engagement

Catherine De Vries, a political science professor at Bocconi University, expects a slight increase in turnout due to the heightened stakes in European issues. She pointed out that voter motivation could stem from “irritation” with EU decisions as much as from support for the European project. A higher turnout, she notes, indicates increased awareness and engagement with European-level politics.

Source: www.theguardian.com

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